15 March, 2013

Syria, the revolution and the 3rd World War!

1st of all, and before starting to read, this is a disclaimer that what is written here are my personal opinions and observations. Based on a collection of information and a analysis by my self. A simple non-politician person.

Trying to link out observations & actions about what has been going around the middle east & Arab spring lately is making me more & more sure nowadays that what is going on currently in Syria , & all the hassle that is going to follow in the region is nothing but a 3rd world war! This time, the alliances are divided between Russia Vs. Qatar! (Yes its the west actually, but of course the west is just happy with the fact that qatar is put on front and dealing with everything, they are just intervening when its needed, and with minimal costs! remember, we are in a time of crisis!).. And this war is all about controlling the most active & modern resource nowadays, GAS, Natural Gas!

For those who don't know, natural gas is now the most demanded resource in the world, and will be during the soon coming future.. It's clean (burning it produces only CO2 & water),  efficient, perfect for factories & heating (hint: high demand in the heavy industrial northern part of the globe), & electricity generation, with the newly developed multi cycle gas generators.. All of this applies especially for the developing countries (no one is gonna burn coal or heavy fuel any more when considering a source of energy for any of the above), & the industrially driven northern part of the planet, including Japan, China, & the whole European continent (which are becoming less and less dependent on nuclear energy after the focoshima explosion).

In case you don't know, Qatar & Russia are in control of this resource more and more world wide, how?
1. Huge gas reserves
2. Gas Exploration companies world wide. (Qatar has several oil and gas companies but is also a major player in international companies like Shell , but also in others)
3. The ability to cut the supply & control the price, And this is more applicable to Qatar , which has very huge storages of gas floating over very huge ships all over the oceans. But also Russia has almost half of Europe under control with a push of a button on its gas pipes. Let me clarify here that Qatar is not the largest producer, Iran, but also countries like Algeria, & KSA are publicly said to, have bigger reserves and production, but Qatar is actually controlling the storage & shipping facilities world wide. with the floating storages for gas all over the world qatar is actually able to limit the supply and change the world price anytime! (well, this is its objective actually.)
Check this: http://shipbuildinghistory.com/today/highvalueships/lngqatar.htm

Norway is also a big player in the industry, but it's having it's own "fixed-price" customers  (mainly the Scandinavian countries), and it's slightly loosing exploration sites outside Norway.

Mentioning Iran above, you should now that it was and still is Qatar's benefit to have Iran continuously out of the game lately with the sanctions applied on it. Iran cannot sell its gas now neither in US dollars nor in euros, and it cannot develop gas storage and shipping facilities by it self with these sanctions. So it's only major gas importer is ... Turkey! Which pays the gas price in GOLD! Though it's prefixed agreed on price, turkey wanted always to get independent from the Iranian gas by having a pipeline from Egypt (remember that this was a project performed in the days of mubarak).
And lets also not forget that iran is Russia's partner in the area. So weakening it is in benefit of qatar, and turkey will release its dependency on the iranian gas, with such a current bad position for iran economically, russia will be loosing yet another battle in the war!

Last but not least, the final fix-price gas supplier (other than iran and norway, and partially egypt with its supply of gas to israel), is Algeria, its main customers are the southern european countries, Spain, italy, and of course France. It actually has 2 pipelines ending in france, one from the west crossing maroco & spain (supplying spain partially with its needs , as the rest is supplied by Qatar), and one from the east crossing Tunisia and italy (italy again partially, as the rest is supplied by Qatar).


So after all those chunks of information now, lets go back to what is actually happening across the arab world at the moment, the so called arab spring... is it an organized chaos after all?! unfortunately, someone was wise enough in qatar to benefit from the need and thrust of the arabic nations for democracy and justice, and use the huge media tool that they have (aljazeera, but also other media channels and ways which qatar is partially financing) psychologically and emotionally pretending to be on the right side supporting the people, and do the needed change to remove the people that stand against their plan in controlling Gas resources across their biggest lost market (Europe) and smash russia's gas power in Europe.

Look at Tunisia, did the people get better conditions? are the country's resources being used for the benefit of the people and making their life better? what about freedom and democracy? are the people of the country really ruling it?
Look at egypt, again, are the country's resources being used for the benefit of the nation? arent the poor towns the lack even clean drinking water meters away from the multi swimming pools resources across egypt still have as bad conditions as before? even further more, isn't egypt now DROWNING IN DEBT! taking loans with billions of dollars every 3 months from the IMF and others? arent the protesters still being beaten in the street like before? isn't the country being ruled in exactly the same way, though the ruling president and parties have completely radically changed now alot of people will gonna start telling me how good is mursi and so, but look at the real situation on the ground.. maybe he is good, but he is definitely not the one ruling the country, maybe the outer policy of egypt now is way better than before... But think about it for a little bit.... emotions, again?!
Remember that Qatar, the fully emotional support for arab's rights in freedom in equality doesn't only arrest you if you are trying to say something against its regime, it actually kidnaps you! you simply disappear!

And the funny thing, that aljazeera actually shows the situation now in Egypt and Tunisia pretty rosy, while its not so at all! maybe in the past couple of weeks things in Tunisia and Egypt were exactly like 2 years ago, but the media coverage is simply ignoring that.

While libya, oh libya... if this country was ruled by 1 family gang, now its being ruled by hundreds of gangs .... we will return to libya in a moment.


So, why Tunisia, the country that surprised the west with its revolution! Yup! The west didnt believe at the beginning that qatar would actually do such a thing... It was a proof by Qatar that this can be done, a demonstration! in addition to opening the 1st path of algerian gas line towards europe... But wait, what happened to Algeria? wasnt there quite alot of demonstrations in there as well? I remember we saw alot of police on the streets as well beating the protesters....! out of a sudden after a visit for the emir of Qatar to algeria, & some "economical agreements" everything went quite! Algeria's gas in safe Qatari companies hands, and the Norwegian gas companies are being kicked out of algeria with a "terrorist act" against one of the gas plants they hold in algeria after the IN AMINAS attack, the Norwegian gas company withdrew all its operations from algeria, terrorists?! oh yeah! Made by ... "Imagine it yourself"

While the other line, via morocco... Well, Morocco hat things settled with the qataris in a short time, so the demonstrations didn't last, plus the king did enough reforms to make things according to people demands, lets note that morocco already had a parliamentary elected government, the only one in the arab world.

Ok, Egypt!
Egypt has been exporting gas for quite a while now mainly via ships at a fixed price, as well as a pipeline supplying israel with a fixed free cheap price to israel, was and still, even via ships before building the pipeline. Then came the big real project of egypts gas, the one that egypt would have benefited from since it had very limited abilities to export via ships, the project was making a pipeline to Turkey, via Jordan & Syria, with plans to be later connected to eastern europe & the rest of europe hopefully.
Europe? Turkey? thats Russia's market! Further more, russia's market that Qatar wants!
So actually ever since the pipeline was built and inaugurated, russia's partner in the region, syria, tried all possible ways to put impediments against having the flow of gas in that line to turkey, Russia was giving gas for free to syria, so if syria wanted gas from the pipeline, it wanted as much as possible for free as well! But egypt wants to sell! and to sell more for the bigger consumer turkey. so the actual agreed amounts of gas actually never got through the pipeline, not even to Jordan.

Solution, Qatar got the solution, It removes mubarak and his regime, rule the country in a similar old-regime way with different people closer to the people,i will let you be creative and google how many qatari investments were planned in egypt after the revolution, here is just ONE result. & then open a way for the pipeline by a revolution in.... Of Course, SYRIA!

But what about libya.. & whats with this dramatic end for Gadafi and his regime, & how did he accept all of this to happen around him in his great africa!
Well, thats the thing! Gadafi was an impediment! A person that talks too much! rumbles and rumbles, maybe in a stupid way, but true facts.. he is never afraid from saying facts. So he will definitely not agree on having Qatar controlling the gas resources in Algeria and the pipelines to europe, and definitely not agree having Qatar controlling the gas resources of Egypt, (because Qatar is not from Africa! Maybe ... he definitely didnt like Mubarak or Bin Ali).
& of course the west will not dare to deepen more into gold-rich african sahara, because he will just send the touarig over to kill their dreams. [hint: Mali as an example!]

Solution, eliminate him! not only eliminate him, but since you have already convinced the west about the applicability of the big-revolution theory, the west can get involved as well... & for free.. Qatar Pays!
Actually the west is just waiting the chance, not only to start getting use from resources, but also to prevent Gadafi's dream of building the world's first GOLD-BASED bank along with the gold-rich african countries! & later issue an african gold currency.... You can imagine that the dollar, euro and pound papers will all be grounded by a golden currency. So by this, they are removing the risk, and getting control over the gold. And after all, a total chaos in libya is just the key to take care of everything else around,,, one day the guys will have time for libya as well.

Actually, think about it a little bit, After the whole thing in libya was done, the guys over there already have cars and weapons, just send them over to mali trying to terror the people of the gold-rich northern mali, spend a year there erasing the entire history and signs of civilization in that part [which is purely islamic by the way (Check this and this)], then the savers will take over, the savers are france and slightly the US, the same exact people who helped Qatar in libya with the exact same percentages of intervention! a payback! sounds like.

Ah, lets not forget about Yemen, Qatar is still trying to gradually control Its gas resources [Amazingly they already have a good gas infrastructure with pipelines and supply ports, plus, Aden's port have a strategic position, but its importance got lost lately with the Somalian pirates, and earlier with the raise of Dubai as a hub instead].. Maybe Yemen, Bahrain and Kuwait or on the to do list for Qatar to actually hit its big neighboring competitor, Saudi Arabia ... who knows whats in their mind? but what is obvious at the moment is that the Qatari are not focusing on the gulf any more, ... They have SYRIA! Thats a headache, an important one.

So ... as the south western european plan is currently being formulated by taking control over the algerian gas and its supply lines. The turkish/eastern european plan is giving Qatar a headache with the syrian impediment. But giving russia a headache as well... So this is actually where both parts of the conflict are exposing all the dirty games that they have.... along with iran, who doesn't want to loose its arm in the region and its only remaining gas client.
Everyone is pushing their intelligence on the ground, media propaganda against each other, and weapons on the ground (Syrian Army Vs Free Syrian Army) that much that it became usual to see rebels in syria having ground and anti-plane artillery even more frequent that how it was in libya. while the russians are pushing tons and tons of weapons in syria, russian war ships and cargo planes are continuously supplying the syrian regime with weapons.
and who pays... the people, unfortunately... the innocents, who dont want Asad and those who do as well! they are all victims of this dirty micro war between the big guys. all for a sake of a ... GAS PIPE!

If its not so, whats the big secret then behind the insisting of having Asad leaving without discussions... Will the opposition people that might lead the country after him be better, I doubt so... They will suck the hell out of the country even a more corrupt regime. & whats this blind support for Asad and all his absurd actions by russia and iran (inc its lebanese little militia), they are all actually blind because they dont care about the poor people, they dont give a damn about its rights, they care only for their interests in having that line or preventing it.

If any of the 2 parties would have cared, they would have spent 20%, only 20% of the enurmous amounts of money they spent in injecting weapons in syria for the poor refugies in the countries around syria, isn't it easier for hezbullah to send people & money to aid syrians who refugeed to lebanon (who are mostly from damascus, regime supporters in a way or another} instead of injecting more fire into the conflict, and same applies to Qatar of course! to much dirt in this conflict.

I would rather end this post here, I think that i said enough above that can make a bit clearer vision of whats in my mind about all the mess happening around the middle east nowadays. stressing on the fact that I was never, and still not, a supporter of Asad or Mubarak or Gadafi, nor any of the newly brought leaders in the region ... because i honestly don't care or judge according to individuals, but rather their actions. and as far as i am seeing, actions are still the same, and the game is dirty!

8 comments:

Safwat_Safi said...

Good job Nasim :) the gaz story could b part of the whole story. .. but am happy that u wrote this :)

Othman Darwish said...

Nasim you are good writer :)

انا رأي باختصار انها حرب باردة جيدة د بين اللاعبين التقلديين : روسيا والولايات المتحدة الامريكية
وإرجع الى التاريخ القريب ستجد ان السعودية لعبت دور قطر الان ، حيث أن السعودية فتحت باب الجهاد المقدس في أفغانستان ومدته بكل ما تملك من سلاح و مال وفتاوى دينية ...وتبن إأخيرا ان CIA يدير العملية بالكامل من من حيث لا يعلم السعوديين وان الحرب في افغانستان مجرد حري بين روسيا وأمريكيا
أما اليوم أمريكا أستغلت عقدة الوجود والشعور بالنقص وحب الظهور عند قطر و تديرها بنفس الطريقة التي ادارت بها السعودية من حيث تعلم أو لا تعلم واالله أعلم 

muhammad ali said...

هذا جيد أن نعرف أن رأيك هو قوية جدا.

muhammad ali said...

هذا جيد أن نعرف أن رأيك هو قوية جدا.

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Uouo Uo said...



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